Flood Watch Until 3 AM Thursday

A flood watch is out until 3 AM Thursday. The steady rain should return for a few hours this evening and this could drop a quick inch of rainfall before it all exits. There could be some localized areas of up to two inches, especially in any places that see heavier thundershowers. There are also some Tornado Watches farther off to our south & west, a sure sign that spring is on the way.

Tomorrow we will clear out, and with gusty winds, we should reach close to 60 degrees. Friday the winds die down in advance of our next system. Clouds will build in later in the day. Friday night into Saturday morning looks showery, but the rest of the weekend looks salvageable. We should see a quick shot of cold air early next week before the temperatures moderate again by mid-week. I'll continue to watch for a chance of snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning but it doesn't look to be too significant. I still don't see any signs of a return to a wintry pattern around here. Remember that tomorrow, being March 1st, marks the first day of meteorological spring.

Interestingly enough, had today not have been Leap Day and we were already in March, as it would be in a regular year, the tornadoes that have hit the Midwest & South would go down in any record books as taking place in spring. However, they show up on Feb. 29 and they fall in the climatological and meteorological worlds as being very late winter. Doesn't seem like a significant difference outside of the meteorological community, but it sure matters in terms of what month these events take place in, and also in what season, especially when comparing what took place today to what is considered average for the month or season.

Still Expecting Rain Wednesday

1:45 PM ET, FEB 27 -- It'll be semi-"boring" weather for the rest of today and tomorrow. Today has been a beautiful Monday with temperatures soaring to the mild lower 60s. Tomorrow the winds will switch directions to be more northerly after a very weak cold front crosses the mid Atlantic. We should reach the low 50s tomorrow, which is nice, but will feel cooler with that light wind blowing.

No real changes to the forecast for Wednesday. Rain should overspread the region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. There's a chance that some folks in the southwestern part of the area could get in on some thunder on Wednesday afternoon, and that will have to be monitored. With limited sunlight, though, this should limit the amount of instability present, meaning any storms shouldn't be too severe. Parts of the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley could see issues with severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, most of the storm is gone, and we should be dry into Friday. The early part of the weekend may be wet, but a lot of details have to be ironed out with that potential storm system.

The long range forecast for the next two weeks looks to continue the trend of above average temperatures.

Warming Up, Wet Wednesday

7:30 AM ET, FEB 26 - Now that the winds are pretty much out of here, it's time for a quick early-week warmup. Today will be a rather uninteresting weather day in terms of headlines, but after the warmth/thunderstorms/rain/snow/wind of the past few days, it's not the worst thing to have a quiet day. High pressure will continue to build into the area, and the sinking air will allow skies to clear out for a mostly sunny day. Once that high pressure slides off the Eastern Seaboard, the winds will turn southerly, and as has always been true, any time we get a southerly-southwesterly flow around here, the temperatures tend to warm up and we get some milder air to build into the region. I think Monday and Tuesday will both be very nice days, although we should start to see some clouds approach our region later on Tuesday as the next storm system enters stage left on Wednesday.

Wednesday looks cool and rainy so far. It now appears that cold air will be present enough at the onset of the storm to keep temperatures (and thus, instability) down. I'm looking at a more "showery" solution... an on-and-off sort of rainfall with cool temperatures throughout the day. That could always change to a heavier rain solution, so stay tuned. We can look forward to a quiet end to the week, but it looks like at least the start of the weekend will be wet. Sunday may also wind up cloudy, too, but there is still time for those details to be ironed out.

Normally, on Sundays, one of my favorite long-term meteorologists to follow, Larry Cosgrove, issues his WeatherAmerica newsletter. Looks like he got it done yesterday evening, and here's the link: WeatherAmerica Newsletter. I think it's a good read and he offers some good information in his long term segment. I also recommend following WxRisk on Facebook for more good long-range weather predictions. He also releases snow maps when storms threaten. That's it for now. Enjoy a nice Sunday and a beautiful start to the work week!

Windy Saturday, Warming up Next Week

1:00 PM, SAT FEB 25, 2012 — It’s been a windy start to the day as many of us are under a Wind Advisory until 6 p.m. The National Weather Service is expecting the strongest winds to take place before then. Winds are expected to be sustained out of the west from 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. After this evening, gusts should abate as the pressure differential between the departing low pressure system that brought warmth & some thunderstorms departs to the north & east and high pressure builds in from the west.

Tomorrow, there will still be some wind but it will be much lighter. It should also shift to the south and southwest bringing in more mild air. Temperatures may brush 50 degrees under sunny skies. Next week is starting to look like a relatively mild one, but Wednesday could be wet and warm. The week looks to finish out mild again before another cold shot threatens the East early next week. We’ll have to keep an eye on the mid-week storm to see if there is any threat for thunderstorms, which is always a possibility depending on how warm it gets before the cold front associated with the low pressure system passes through.

What about snow? I don’t see any threats of snow coming up in the next week to 10 days, because these cold shots look to be short-lived. Three of the teleconnections we frequently look at to see if there is going to be a greater-than-normal chance of “the big one” on the East Coast do not appear to be tilted in snow lovers’ favor. March 1st is also the first day of “meteorological spring” which is the three month period of March-April-May. It will be very hard if it snows to get it to accumulate during the daytime unless it is snowing very heavy, due to the high angle of the sun. I do not see signs of a pattern flip in the near future, but will continue watching to see if there is any threat of a late winter or early spring cold snap. I think it’s too early to throw in the towel on any big storms, as there can still be surprises in the month of March, but given how this winter has gone so far and given what appears to be coming in the next two weeks, chances do not look good any time soon.

What's Up with Mid-January?

The past couple of days, temperatures have been in the mid 60s, giving snow lovers massive headaches and the rest of us a nice reprieve from lows in the single digits the other night. But how long is this going to last? Anyone living around here in the winter knows that we're often a battleground between warm & cold air masses, but this year hasn't been the case because of the massive polar vortex being stuck over the North Pole, and giving us a very strong positive AO value. We've also been void of any major storms on the East Coast simply because the key elements that lend themselves to a favorable pattern for that just aren't present.

We've heard a lot of excuses for this sort of set up and some of them are true. I've heard global warming as one of the major excuses, and all politics aside (because sadly that has become a major political issue and I don't think scientific fact should be debated in the political realm - a topic reserved for another day), that's simply not the case here. Two winters ago we had the snowiest winter on record and it was all because of the pattern. This year, we're in the complete opposite setup, but I think that's about to change.

I've been taking a look at teleconnections for the past few weeks, and it's been a while since the AO has been forecast to go negative so consistently. Now, that is the case, so it's clear that cold air is going to start coming down from Canada. With a neutral PNA (and you really want a positive PNA to guarantee the cold air is funneled into the Eastern half of the continent), it's really anyone's guess as to where this cold air goes. It might end up being straight into the central US and we see the mountains block coastal areas from any cold at all. It could wind up going east and we get our first major arctic outbreak of the year (NOTE: I don't consider the start of this week to be a major arctic outbreak... too short lived). Or it could become entrenched in the West and yet again the East Coast sees a mild, storm-free pattern through much of the month. Again, it's really anyone's guess. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) appears to be sending the crux of this air to the eastern 2/3 of the country in its long term outlooks. Some computer models are agreeing with that, indicating that the pattern is going to flip to a colder one.

La Niña appears to be backing off for at least a short time, and the MJO has us flirting with a colder pattern. So, at last the conclusion: yes, it's going to get colder (and with the start of winter feeling so warm, it's going to really hit ya), but I don't see any indications of a major East Coast snowstorm any time soon. I've always said you have to get the cold before you can get the snow, so snow lovers - take solace in the fact that it's going to get colder. And of course, I'll keep an eye on the long term forecast to see if we need to break out the snow shovels on the East Coast.

Status Quo through New Years

I figured I'd try my hand at running a blog again, and keep it based on weather, as I'm attending Mississippi State University beginning in the spring (3 weeks from yesterday). I am especially interested in long term forecasting. I think it's very interesting how we can go beyond the traditional one week forecast and look at clues from upcoming patterns to spot where storms or especially colder/warmer than normal periods are emerging. Very cool stuff.

Out in the northern Shenandoah Valley, we hit the mid 50s under cloudy skies, in the middle of December. This isn't especially common, but teleconnections as they are named, are indicating that these conditions aren't too surprising because of the pattern we are in. I am trying to research four patterns and the impact they have on winters in the East Coast: AO, NAO, MJO, and PNA. Given that it's a La Nina year, it's a bit harder to get extended cold/snowy outbreaks in our area.

For cold & snow to impact the Eastern USA, the teleconnections need to align in the following pattern (and it appears that 2 or more of them need to line up in this arrangement): -AO, -NAO, +PNA, and an MJO in phase 7, 8, or 1. Most or all of this fall & winter season so far, the AO and NAO have been positive, and the PNA has been neutral to negative. This explains the trough on the west coast/ridge in the east idea and the amount of storms that have been Great Lakes or Appalachian cutters, keeping the East mild and snow-free. The MJO was briefly in Phases 7, 8, and 1, but has since stalled out in Phase 4 and what is almost considered a "Circle of Death".

I've been keeping an eye on the forecasts for the next two weeks and a major pattern shift does not appear likely. The NAO and AO look to be remaining pretty positive, and the PNA will remain neutral to negative, according to the computer model forecasts. The MJO is modeled to circle around in Phase 4/Circle of Death area, and remember that an MJO in Phases 7, 8, and 1 are correlated with colder periods.

So, yes, it can get cold without the above aligning in the perfect setup, BUT the cold I'm referring to is significant and sustained outbreaks of cold, not the one to three day "outbreaks" of colder than normal air that come in after storms and do not yield themselves to a blockbuster snowstorm for much of the I-95 corridor. Then again, this pattern can certainly change, so winter is not called off... yet. But it is certainly a welcome break from the cold and snowy patterns of the past two winters!