NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY:

PREPARE FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY, CLOSE TO 50.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Severe Weather Friday for Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Taking a quick look over to our west to watch some nasty weather heading toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this area for the past several days, and they've been giving it a moderate risk for a while now. If we dig deeper past the moderate label and into numerical probabilities, we get a map with a hot spot right over Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. And there will be more states under the gun; those are just the areas that are most likely to see the worst.

Take a look at the map that the SPC has issued for tomorrow. This is likely to be updated, but this is what they've got right now:

SPC outlook valid 7 am Eastern Friday - 7 am Eastern Saturday.
It was issued as of 12:30 pm today (Thursday). Click to see larger.

If you want to keep an eye on that probability, visit the Storm Prediction Center's website. Then you can click on convective outlooks for more information. Obviously as we grow closer to the event, we can then look at tornado/wind/hail probabilities individually.

Once I am back home from work tomorrow I am planning on tracking these storms on GRLevel3, which is a program I downloaded that compiles radar data. The radar in my header is a screenshot from that program. It also shows warning data, so I can keep an eye on the very worst. It appears as though this is going to be a pretty widespread outbreak, at least from the SPC's outlook. Meteorological spring started today with warm temperatures for parts of the Eastern Seaboard. Tomorrow, this severe outbreak looks like it will prove that meteorological spring is indeed underway.

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