What's Up with Mid-January?

The past couple of days, temperatures have been in the mid 60s, giving snow lovers massive headaches and the rest of us a nice reprieve from lows in the single digits the other night. But how long is this going to last? Anyone living around here in the winter knows that we're often a battleground between warm & cold air masses, but this year hasn't been the case because of the massive polar vortex being stuck over the North Pole, and giving us a very strong positive AO value. We've also been void of any major storms on the East Coast simply because the key elements that lend themselves to a favorable pattern for that just aren't present.

We've heard a lot of excuses for this sort of set up and some of them are true. I've heard global warming as one of the major excuses, and all politics aside (because sadly that has become a major political issue and I don't think scientific fact should be debated in the political realm - a topic reserved for another day), that's simply not the case here. Two winters ago we had the snowiest winter on record and it was all because of the pattern. This year, we're in the complete opposite setup, but I think that's about to change.

I've been taking a look at teleconnections for the past few weeks, and it's been a while since the AO has been forecast to go negative so consistently. Now, that is the case, so it's clear that cold air is going to start coming down from Canada. With a neutral PNA (and you really want a positive PNA to guarantee the cold air is funneled into the Eastern half of the continent), it's really anyone's guess as to where this cold air goes. It might end up being straight into the central US and we see the mountains block coastal areas from any cold at all. It could wind up going east and we get our first major arctic outbreak of the year (NOTE: I don't consider the start of this week to be a major arctic outbreak... too short lived). Or it could become entrenched in the West and yet again the East Coast sees a mild, storm-free pattern through much of the month. Again, it's really anyone's guess. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) appears to be sending the crux of this air to the eastern 2/3 of the country in its long term outlooks. Some computer models are agreeing with that, indicating that the pattern is going to flip to a colder one.

La Niña appears to be backing off for at least a short time, and the MJO has us flirting with a colder pattern. So, at last the conclusion: yes, it's going to get colder (and with the start of winter feeling so warm, it's going to really hit ya), but I don't see any indications of a major East Coast snowstorm any time soon. I've always said you have to get the cold before you can get the snow, so snow lovers - take solace in the fact that it's going to get colder. And of course, I'll keep an eye on the long term forecast to see if we need to break out the snow shovels on the East Coast.