Windy Saturday, Warming up Next Week

1:00 PM, SAT FEB 25, 2012 — It’s been a windy start to the day as many of us are under a Wind Advisory until 6 p.m. The National Weather Service is expecting the strongest winds to take place before then. Winds are expected to be sustained out of the west from 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. After this evening, gusts should abate as the pressure differential between the departing low pressure system that brought warmth & some thunderstorms departs to the north & east and high pressure builds in from the west.

Tomorrow, there will still be some wind but it will be much lighter. It should also shift to the south and southwest bringing in more mild air. Temperatures may brush 50 degrees under sunny skies. Next week is starting to look like a relatively mild one, but Wednesday could be wet and warm. The week looks to finish out mild again before another cold shot threatens the East early next week. We’ll have to keep an eye on the mid-week storm to see if there is any threat for thunderstorms, which is always a possibility depending on how warm it gets before the cold front associated with the low pressure system passes through.

What about snow? I don’t see any threats of snow coming up in the next week to 10 days, because these cold shots look to be short-lived. Three of the teleconnections we frequently look at to see if there is going to be a greater-than-normal chance of “the big one” on the East Coast do not appear to be tilted in snow lovers’ favor. March 1st is also the first day of “meteorological spring” which is the three month period of March-April-May. It will be very hard if it snows to get it to accumulate during the daytime unless it is snowing very heavy, due to the high angle of the sun. I do not see signs of a pattern flip in the near future, but will continue watching to see if there is any threat of a late winter or early spring cold snap. I think it’s too early to throw in the towel on any big storms, as there can still be surprises in the month of March, but given how this winter has gone so far and given what appears to be coming in the next two weeks, chances do not look good any time soon.