Snow Gives Us A Reminder of What Spring Is

Today's snow (especially to our south) gave everyone a reminder of what spring is: it's a transition season. Spring never involves a steady increase in temperatures. With spring you are always going to take two steps forward and one step backward. A step backward, depending on how far into spring you are, sometimes means snow (usually light). Sometimes, though, there's enough cold air and moisture to work with that it means localized areas get 10" of snow, like what happened in Orange County (VA) today. Clipper systems can sometimes do that. They are forecasted to drop a general 1-3, maybe 3-5 inches of snow, and localized areas get some heavier bands of snow.

Yes, in spring, it is possible to have snow early in the week and hit 70 degrees later in that week. It's a part of reality, the rising sun angle, and the fact that the polar jet is still active and able to drop a quick cold snap on you when you aren't paying attention. We are actually going to see that in action this week. Today we started out chilly with a few snow flurries in the Northern Valley, but later on in the week we will rise to near 70 degrees, especially on Thursday!

Tomorrow, Tuesday, will see temperatures warm to near 50 degrees under sunny skies. That is really going to feel nice after today's cold air. It felt quite chilly to step out to temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 and see the flurries flying. By Wednesday we are in the 60s, and Thursday we grow ever closer to 70 degrees. Some areas to our south have a better shot at seeing the 70 degree mark. By Friday we back off, but by next week we already begin the warmup. The longer range looks to continue this warmth.

Today's snow reminded me of what my father always says about the onion snow. That's what he calls the last flakes of the season. They're usually big and wet, and can drop a little bit of accumulation. But in a day or two, it's all a distant memory. It falls among the flowers and spring onions. Could this have been it? I think there's a pretty good chance that we are finished with any extended cold snaps around here. But that doesn't mean it won't get cold again. After all, spring is a transition season, and eventually we will have to take that step back before we can go forward again.

Severe Weather Friday for Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Taking a quick look over to our west to watch some nasty weather heading toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this area for the past several days, and they've been giving it a moderate risk for a while now. If we dig deeper past the moderate label and into numerical probabilities, we get a map with a hot spot right over Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. And there will be more states under the gun; those are just the areas that are most likely to see the worst.

Take a look at the map that the SPC has issued for tomorrow. This is likely to be updated, but this is what they've got right now:

SPC outlook valid 7 am Eastern Friday - 7 am Eastern Saturday.
It was issued as of 12:30 pm today (Thursday). Click to see larger.

If you want to keep an eye on that probability, visit the Storm Prediction Center's website. Then you can click on convective outlooks for more information. Obviously as we grow closer to the event, we can then look at tornado/wind/hail probabilities individually.

Once I am back home from work tomorrow I am planning on tracking these storms on GRLevel3, which is a program I downloaded that compiles radar data. The radar in my header is a screenshot from that program. It also shows warning data, so I can keep an eye on the very worst. It appears as though this is going to be a pretty widespread outbreak, at least from the SPC's outlook. Meteorological spring started today with warm temperatures for parts of the Eastern Seaboard. Tomorrow, this severe outbreak looks like it will prove that meteorological spring is indeed underway.