Snow Gives Us A Reminder of What Spring Is

Today's snow (especially to our south) gave everyone a reminder of what spring is: it's a transition season. Spring never involves a steady increase in temperatures. With spring you are always going to take two steps forward and one step backward. A step backward, depending on how far into spring you are, sometimes means snow (usually light). Sometimes, though, there's enough cold air and moisture to work with that it means localized areas get 10" of snow, like what happened in Orange County (VA) today. Clipper systems can sometimes do that. They are forecasted to drop a general 1-3, maybe 3-5 inches of snow, and localized areas get some heavier bands of snow.

Yes, in spring, it is possible to have snow early in the week and hit 70 degrees later in that week. It's a part of reality, the rising sun angle, and the fact that the polar jet is still active and able to drop a quick cold snap on you when you aren't paying attention. We are actually going to see that in action this week. Today we started out chilly with a few snow flurries in the Northern Valley, but later on in the week we will rise to near 70 degrees, especially on Thursday!

Tomorrow, Tuesday, will see temperatures warm to near 50 degrees under sunny skies. That is really going to feel nice after today's cold air. It felt quite chilly to step out to temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 and see the flurries flying. By Wednesday we are in the 60s, and Thursday we grow ever closer to 70 degrees. Some areas to our south have a better shot at seeing the 70 degree mark. By Friday we back off, but by next week we already begin the warmup. The longer range looks to continue this warmth.

Today's snow reminded me of what my father always says about the onion snow. That's what he calls the last flakes of the season. They're usually big and wet, and can drop a little bit of accumulation. But in a day or two, it's all a distant memory. It falls among the flowers and spring onions. Could this have been it? I think there's a pretty good chance that we are finished with any extended cold snaps around here. But that doesn't mean it won't get cold again. After all, spring is a transition season, and eventually we will have to take that step back before we can go forward again.

Severe Weather Friday for Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Taking a quick look over to our west to watch some nasty weather heading toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this area for the past several days, and they've been giving it a moderate risk for a while now. If we dig deeper past the moderate label and into numerical probabilities, we get a map with a hot spot right over Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. And there will be more states under the gun; those are just the areas that are most likely to see the worst.

Take a look at the map that the SPC has issued for tomorrow. This is likely to be updated, but this is what they've got right now:

SPC outlook valid 7 am Eastern Friday - 7 am Eastern Saturday.
It was issued as of 12:30 pm today (Thursday). Click to see larger.

If you want to keep an eye on that probability, visit the Storm Prediction Center's website. Then you can click on convective outlooks for more information. Obviously as we grow closer to the event, we can then look at tornado/wind/hail probabilities individually.

Once I am back home from work tomorrow I am planning on tracking these storms on GRLevel3, which is a program I downloaded that compiles radar data. The radar in my header is a screenshot from that program. It also shows warning data, so I can keep an eye on the very worst. It appears as though this is going to be a pretty widespread outbreak, at least from the SPC's outlook. Meteorological spring started today with warm temperatures for parts of the Eastern Seaboard. Tomorrow, this severe outbreak looks like it will prove that meteorological spring is indeed underway.

Flood Watch Until 3 AM Thursday

A flood watch is out until 3 AM Thursday. The steady rain should return for a few hours this evening and this could drop a quick inch of rainfall before it all exits. There could be some localized areas of up to two inches, especially in any places that see heavier thundershowers. There are also some Tornado Watches farther off to our south & west, a sure sign that spring is on the way.

Tomorrow we will clear out, and with gusty winds, we should reach close to 60 degrees. Friday the winds die down in advance of our next system. Clouds will build in later in the day. Friday night into Saturday morning looks showery, but the rest of the weekend looks salvageable. We should see a quick shot of cold air early next week before the temperatures moderate again by mid-week. I'll continue to watch for a chance of snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning but it doesn't look to be too significant. I still don't see any signs of a return to a wintry pattern around here. Remember that tomorrow, being March 1st, marks the first day of meteorological spring.

Interestingly enough, had today not have been Leap Day and we were already in March, as it would be in a regular year, the tornadoes that have hit the Midwest & South would go down in any record books as taking place in spring. However, they show up on Feb. 29 and they fall in the climatological and meteorological worlds as being very late winter. Doesn't seem like a significant difference outside of the meteorological community, but it sure matters in terms of what month these events take place in, and also in what season, especially when comparing what took place today to what is considered average for the month or season.

Still Expecting Rain Wednesday

1:45 PM ET, FEB 27 -- It'll be semi-"boring" weather for the rest of today and tomorrow. Today has been a beautiful Monday with temperatures soaring to the mild lower 60s. Tomorrow the winds will switch directions to be more northerly after a very weak cold front crosses the mid Atlantic. We should reach the low 50s tomorrow, which is nice, but will feel cooler with that light wind blowing.

No real changes to the forecast for Wednesday. Rain should overspread the region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. There's a chance that some folks in the southwestern part of the area could get in on some thunder on Wednesday afternoon, and that will have to be monitored. With limited sunlight, though, this should limit the amount of instability present, meaning any storms shouldn't be too severe. Parts of the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley could see issues with severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, most of the storm is gone, and we should be dry into Friday. The early part of the weekend may be wet, but a lot of details have to be ironed out with that potential storm system.

The long range forecast for the next two weeks looks to continue the trend of above average temperatures.

Warming Up, Wet Wednesday

7:30 AM ET, FEB 26 - Now that the winds are pretty much out of here, it's time for a quick early-week warmup. Today will be a rather uninteresting weather day in terms of headlines, but after the warmth/thunderstorms/rain/snow/wind of the past few days, it's not the worst thing to have a quiet day. High pressure will continue to build into the area, and the sinking air will allow skies to clear out for a mostly sunny day. Once that high pressure slides off the Eastern Seaboard, the winds will turn southerly, and as has always been true, any time we get a southerly-southwesterly flow around here, the temperatures tend to warm up and we get some milder air to build into the region. I think Monday and Tuesday will both be very nice days, although we should start to see some clouds approach our region later on Tuesday as the next storm system enters stage left on Wednesday.

Wednesday looks cool and rainy so far. It now appears that cold air will be present enough at the onset of the storm to keep temperatures (and thus, instability) down. I'm looking at a more "showery" solution... an on-and-off sort of rainfall with cool temperatures throughout the day. That could always change to a heavier rain solution, so stay tuned. We can look forward to a quiet end to the week, but it looks like at least the start of the weekend will be wet. Sunday may also wind up cloudy, too, but there is still time for those details to be ironed out.

Normally, on Sundays, one of my favorite long-term meteorologists to follow, Larry Cosgrove, issues his WeatherAmerica newsletter. Looks like he got it done yesterday evening, and here's the link: WeatherAmerica Newsletter. I think it's a good read and he offers some good information in his long term segment. I also recommend following WxRisk on Facebook for more good long-range weather predictions. He also releases snow maps when storms threaten. That's it for now. Enjoy a nice Sunday and a beautiful start to the work week!

Windy Saturday, Warming up Next Week

1:00 PM, SAT FEB 25, 2012 — It’s been a windy start to the day as many of us are under a Wind Advisory until 6 p.m. The National Weather Service is expecting the strongest winds to take place before then. Winds are expected to be sustained out of the west from 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. After this evening, gusts should abate as the pressure differential between the departing low pressure system that brought warmth & some thunderstorms departs to the north & east and high pressure builds in from the west.

Tomorrow, there will still be some wind but it will be much lighter. It should also shift to the south and southwest bringing in more mild air. Temperatures may brush 50 degrees under sunny skies. Next week is starting to look like a relatively mild one, but Wednesday could be wet and warm. The week looks to finish out mild again before another cold shot threatens the East early next week. We’ll have to keep an eye on the mid-week storm to see if there is any threat for thunderstorms, which is always a possibility depending on how warm it gets before the cold front associated with the low pressure system passes through.

What about snow? I don’t see any threats of snow coming up in the next week to 10 days, because these cold shots look to be short-lived. Three of the teleconnections we frequently look at to see if there is going to be a greater-than-normal chance of “the big one” on the East Coast do not appear to be tilted in snow lovers’ favor. March 1st is also the first day of “meteorological spring” which is the three month period of March-April-May. It will be very hard if it snows to get it to accumulate during the daytime unless it is snowing very heavy, due to the high angle of the sun. I do not see signs of a pattern flip in the near future, but will continue watching to see if there is any threat of a late winter or early spring cold snap. I think it’s too early to throw in the towel on any big storms, as there can still be surprises in the month of March, but given how this winter has gone so far and given what appears to be coming in the next two weeks, chances do not look good any time soon.

What's Up with Mid-January?

The past couple of days, temperatures have been in the mid 60s, giving snow lovers massive headaches and the rest of us a nice reprieve from lows in the single digits the other night. But how long is this going to last? Anyone living around here in the winter knows that we're often a battleground between warm & cold air masses, but this year hasn't been the case because of the massive polar vortex being stuck over the North Pole, and giving us a very strong positive AO value. We've also been void of any major storms on the East Coast simply because the key elements that lend themselves to a favorable pattern for that just aren't present.

We've heard a lot of excuses for this sort of set up and some of them are true. I've heard global warming as one of the major excuses, and all politics aside (because sadly that has become a major political issue and I don't think scientific fact should be debated in the political realm - a topic reserved for another day), that's simply not the case here. Two winters ago we had the snowiest winter on record and it was all because of the pattern. This year, we're in the complete opposite setup, but I think that's about to change.

I've been taking a look at teleconnections for the past few weeks, and it's been a while since the AO has been forecast to go negative so consistently. Now, that is the case, so it's clear that cold air is going to start coming down from Canada. With a neutral PNA (and you really want a positive PNA to guarantee the cold air is funneled into the Eastern half of the continent), it's really anyone's guess as to where this cold air goes. It might end up being straight into the central US and we see the mountains block coastal areas from any cold at all. It could wind up going east and we get our first major arctic outbreak of the year (NOTE: I don't consider the start of this week to be a major arctic outbreak... too short lived). Or it could become entrenched in the West and yet again the East Coast sees a mild, storm-free pattern through much of the month. Again, it's really anyone's guess. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) appears to be sending the crux of this air to the eastern 2/3 of the country in its long term outlooks. Some computer models are agreeing with that, indicating that the pattern is going to flip to a colder one.

La Niña appears to be backing off for at least a short time, and the MJO has us flirting with a colder pattern. So, at last the conclusion: yes, it's going to get colder (and with the start of winter feeling so warm, it's going to really hit ya), but I don't see any indications of a major East Coast snowstorm any time soon. I've always said you have to get the cold before you can get the snow, so snow lovers - take solace in the fact that it's going to get colder. And of course, I'll keep an eye on the long term forecast to see if we need to break out the snow shovels on the East Coast.